Thursday 27 June 2013

Price & Time: USD Pullback into Quarter-End?

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

PT_qrtr_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: USD Pullback into Quarter-End?
 

  • EUR/USD came under further pressure on Wednesday and broke below the 2x1 Gann angle line of the year-to-date low in the 1.3045 area
  • Our trend bias remains lower in the exchange rate with focus now on the 4th square root progression of the month-to-date high near 1.2950
  • The level can often times spark a counter-trend reaction and a close below 1.2950 is required to maintain the immediate downside tack
  • Longer-term cycle studies remain negative on the Euro, but shorter-term counts suggest trading could become choppy over the next few days as a variety of very minor turn windows materialize
  • The 3rd square root progression of this month’s high near 1.3065 is immediate resistance, but only clear strength over 1.3185 turns us positive on the Euro

Strategy: Short positions favored while below 1.3185

Exchange Rate
Support 2
Support 1
Spot
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
EUR/USD
1.2900
*1.2950
1.3035
1.3065
*1.3185

AUD/USD:
PT_qrtr_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: USD Pullback into Quarter-End?
 

  • AUD/USD continues to struggle higher off the 13th square root progression of the year-to-date high in the .9175 area
  • Our trend bias is still lower in the Aussie with clear strength above .9425 needed to signal some sort of trend shift
  • Long-term cycle studies warn of a turn this week, but shorter-term counts point to a minor turn window at the end of the week
  • Back under .9175 exposes key long-term support at .9135
  • A close below there is needed to signal the start of another more important decline

Strategy: Like being flat around these longer-term support levels. May look to go long over .9425.


Exchange Rate
Support 2
Support 1
Spot
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
AUD/USD
*0.9135
0.9175
0.9310
0.9335
*0.9425

USD/CAD:
PT_qrtr_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: USD Pullback into Quarter-End?
 

  • USD/CAD has come under steady pressure over the past couple of days after finding stiff resistance near the 88.6% retracement of the 2011 to 2012 decline in the 1.0540 area
  • Our trend bias is still higher, but a close above 1.0540 is now needed to signal a resumption of the broader uptrend
  • Near-term focused time cycles point to further weakness over the next few days
  • Immediate support is seen at the 4th square root progression of May low in the 1.0410 area
  • However, only aggressive weakness below a retracement convergence near 1.0340 would turn us negative on Funds

Strategy: Like buying Funds against 1.0340 over the next few days.

Exchange Rate
Support 2
Support 1
Spot
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
USD/CAD
*1.0340
1.0410
1.0440
1.0500
*1.0540


Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500

PT_qrtr_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: USD Pullback into Quarter-End?

The reversal in the S&P 500 at the start of the week was a good example of how a cycle turn window is ideally supposed to work. The short-term trend was down leading into the June 20-25 window following the break of the early June lows. During this time period the index successfully tested a key level of symmetry at 1565 as this marked a convergence of the 3rd square root progression of the 1687 all-time high and a measured move of the early June decline. Just how important this upside resumption is will now depend on how the index reacts at key Gann levels near 1605 and 1637. Traction over the latter is required to set up a re-test of the May high. In a similar vain to Gold, any unexpected aggressive weakness that violates Monday’s price/time convergence would be a very negative cyclical development and opens the way for a much more aggressive equity decline in the weeks ahead.

Wednesday 26 June 2013

USD to Face Limited Losses- EU Summit to Drag on EUR Outlook

Index
Last
High
Low
Daily Change (%)
Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index
10736.16
10765.76
10719.37
-0.05
52.53%

Forex_USD_to_Face_Limited_Losses-_EU_Summit_to_Drag_on_EUR_Outlook_body_ScreenShot094.png, USD to Face Limited Losses- EU Summit to Drag on EUR Outlook
 

Although the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is trading 0.08 percent lower from the open, the greenback may carve out a higher high in the coming days as the upward trend from earlier this month continues to take shape. As the 30-minute relative strength index bounces back ahead of interim support (35), we are looking for a move back towards the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement around 10,760, and the bullish sentiment surrounding the reserve currency may gather pace in the month ahead should we see a renewed flight to safety. At the same time, despite the downward revision in the final 1Q GDP report, tapering the Fed’s asset-purchase program should be a growing theme in the second-half of the year as the central bank anticipates a stronger recovery over the coming months, and the FOMC may find narrowing arguments to retain its $85 monthly purchases as the recovery gradually gathers pace.

Forex_USD_to_Face_Limited_Losses-_EU_Summit_to_Drag_on_EUR_Outlook_body_ScreenShot095.png, USD to Face Limited Losses- EU Summit to Drag on EUR Outlook

Indeed, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota argued that monetary policy will remain accommodative even after the FOMC halts its quantitative easing program as the central bank retains a zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP), but went onto say that the board should defend the 2 percent target for inflation as price growth remains subdued. It seems as though the Fed is finding it increasingly difficult to justify its highly accommodative policy as the central bank turns increasingly upbeat towards the economy. In turn, we are waiting to see a close above the 61.8 percent Fib around 10,764 to see a more meaningful move at the 78.6 percent retracement (10,845), and we will continue to look for a higher high amid the shift in the policy outlook.

Forex_USD_to_Face_Limited_Losses-_EU_Summit_to_Drag_on_EUR_Outlook_body_ScreenShot096.png, USD to Face Limited Losses- EU Summit to Drag on EUR Outlook

Two of the four components advanced against the greenback, led by a 0.79 percent advance in the Australian dollar, while the Euro is struggling to hold its ground ahead of the EU Summit, with the EURUSD trading 0.50 percent lower on the day. As European policy makers struggle to meet on common ground, there’s certainly limited scope of seeing a resolution to utilize the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to directly recapitalize commercial banks, and we may see the EU become increasingly reliant on monetary support as the governments operating under the single currency struggle to get their house in order. Should the EU Summit disappoint, we should see a more meaningful move at the 23.6 percent Fib retracement from the February decline around 1.2970, and the Euro may threaten the upward trend from earlier this year should we see a greater case for the European Central Bank (ECB) to further embark on its easing cycle.
 

A Wary BoE Financial Stability Report Fails to Scare Pound Traders

THE TAKEAWAY: BoE warns that banks are vulnerable to an abrupt increase in interest rates -> BoE further concerned with global economy risks -> Little Pound reaction

The Bank of England warned in its semi-annual financial stability report that banks are vulnerable to an abrupt increase in interest rates. The BoE further warned of the stability risks from a weak global economy and Euro-area, and said that the confidence in the financial system remains weak.

There was little Pound reaction to the stability report, as was predicted by DailyFX’s Currency Strategist Ilya Spivak earlier today. Look at Ilya’s Euro Open for an explanation of the meaning and history of the financial stability report.

However, the Pound is the overall biggest loser in today’s Forex trading at the time of this writing. GBP/USD is currently trading below the 1.5400 figure, and the pair may next see support by a three-week low at 1.5343.

GBPUSDDaily: June 26, 2013
A_Wary_BoE_Financial_Stability_Report_Fails_to_Scare_Pound_Traders_body_gbpusd.png, A Wary BoE Financial Stability Report Fails to Scare Pound Traders

Monday 24 June 2013

US Dollar Poised to Take Aim at May High as S&P 500 Sinks

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar continues to push higher, with prices on track to challenge the May swing high, while the S&P 500 continues to push lower after breaching support.


US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices found interim support above a rising trend line set from late February and launched a sharp recovery, with the bulls now challenging the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 10781. A further push higher targets May 29 swing high at 10877. The 61.8% Fib at 10721 is acting as near-term support, with a reversal back beneath that eyeing the 50% retracement at 10673.

Forex_US_Dollar_Poised_to_Take_Aim_at_May_High_as_SP_500_Sinks_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Poised to Take Aim at May High as S&P 500 Sinks
 

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices dropped through a support cluster marked by rising trend lines set from mid-November 2012 and February of this year, with sellers now testing the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 1585.80. A further push beneath that aims for the 100% level at 1564.60. Alternatively, a recovery above the 1600 figure sees trend line support-turned-resistance at 1608.90.

Forex_US_Dollar_Poised_to_Take_Aim_at_May_High_as_SP_500_Sinks_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Poised to Take Aim at May High as S&P 500 Sinks
 

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices dove sharply lower, with sellers now testing the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1273.77. A break beneath that exposes the 123.6% level at 1238.38. Near-term resistance is at 1309.16, the 76.4% Fib, followed by the 61.8% expansion at 1331.05.

Forex_US_Dollar_Poised_to_Take_Aim_at_May_High_as_SP_500_Sinks_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Poised to Take Aim at May High as S&P 500 Sinks
 



CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are testing support in the 93.11-55 area, marked by the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement and a rising trend line set from mid-April. A break beneath that exposes an alternative upward-sloping barrier set from the May 1 low, now at the 92.00 figure, followed by the June 3 bottom at 91.23. Near-term resistance is at 94.27, the 61.8% Fib.

Forex_US_Dollar_Poised_to_Take_Aim_at_May_High_as_SP_500_Sinks_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Poised to Take Aim at May High as S&P 500 Sinks
 
 


Contemplative Start to Week as Safe Havens Lead High Yield FX

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

After a violent close to the week across all asset classes, not just FX, the last full week of June has opened up with more of a whimper than a bang, although the same themes that closed last week have continued thus far. Accordingly, the US Dollar remains the top performer amid higher US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield hitting 2.632% today, the highest level since August 4, 2011 – the day before Standard & Poor’s stripped the US of its ‘AAA’ credit rating.

Needless to say, global markets have come a long way since the summer of 2011, yet price action in FX today is eerily similar to that seen at the beginning of the Euro-zone crisis spiral that consumer the better part of the past two years. Three of the more berated currencies during this time frame, the Japanese Yen (‘Abenomics’), the Swiss Franc (the SNB’s EURCHF floor at Sf1.2000), and the US Dollar (the Fed’s massive balance sheet expansion and suppression of yields) are leading the pack as signs of crisis renewed begin to creep back into the foreground. Certainly, with the non-safe haven European currencies as well as the commodity currency bloc (high yield FX) sliding further today, we are inclined to believe that global market participants are starting to feel a bit uneasy.

Certainly, this week will be quieter than the past few, with little significant data on the docket, although there is potentially market moving data out from Germany, Japan, and the US between Tuesday and Thursday. Outside of these key events, we suspect that the coming days will continued to be shaped by speculation over the Fed’s QE3 taper talk, which has hit Gold and other risk-correlated assets significantly.

Taking a look at European credit, peripheral bonds continue their selloff, with peripheral yields continuing to widen out relative to their German counterparts. The Italian 2-year note yield has increased to 2.040% (+6.9-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 2.315% (+0.5-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield has increased to 4.665% (+5.2-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has increased to 4.934% (+0.8-bps); higher yields imply lower prices.

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 10:35 GMT

CHF: 0.00%
JPY: -0.05%
EUR: -0.11%
AUD:-0.28%
GBP:-0.40%
CAD:-0.48%
NZD:-0.50%

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): +0.03% (+2.43%prior 5-days)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

There are no significant data due during the North American session on Monday, June 24.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OUTLOOK
Contemplative_Start_to_Week_as_Safe_Havens_Lead_High_Yield_FX_body_x0000_i1027.png, Contemplative Start to Week as Safe Havens Lead High Yield FX
EURUSD: The past week I’ve been suggesting that a Right Shoulder on a Head & Shoulders formation, dating back to September 2013, might be forming with implications for a retest of the June 2010 low near $1.1875. After six gut wrenching days of nearly seeing the pattern nullified in the near-term, the FOMC decision provided the necessary catalyst for a turn. The EURUSD now finds itself back in the formerly key 1.3185/45 zone, which produced highs in mid-April and late-May, before breaking in the first week of June. Support is thus here now, alongside the 21-EMA at 1.3195. A deeper pullback eyes 1.3075.

Contemplative_Start_to_Week_as_Safe_Havens_Lead_High_Yield_FX_body_x0000_i1028.png, Contemplative Start to Week as Safe Havens Lead High Yield FX
USDJPY: While I’ve been looking for a bearish scenario, I previously noted: “the USDJPY is close to breaking out of the daily RSI downtrend in place since May 17, suggesting a turn may be on the horizon.” This fringe observation proved to be correct, given the outcome of the Fed meeting, and the USDJPY has happily surged alongside rising US Treasury yields. A close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (May 22 high to June 7 low) at ¥97.58 would be viewed as constructive into 99.25/35.

Contemplative_Start_to_Week_as_Safe_Havens_Lead_High_Yield_FX_body_x0000_i1029.png, Contemplative Start to Week as Safe Havens Lead High Yield FX
GBPUSD: Earlier this week I said: “The pair is attempting to crack the 200-SMA at $1.5700 again, after several rejections last week and the week before. Once more, the GBPUSD finds itself in a state trepidation as it makes little headway above the key moving average, as the daily RSI breaks its late-May/early-June uptrend at the top rail of the ascending channel off of the March and May lows (drawn to the early-May high). In terms of daily RSI, the uptrend has broken before achieving overbought conditions, suggesting that a near-term top may be in place.” Price has fallen back to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the year high/low at1.5408, meaning that we may yet see momentum slow in the short-term.

Contemplative_Start_to_Week_as_Safe_Havens_Lead_High_Yield_FX_body_x0000_i1030.png, Contemplative Start to Week as Safe Havens Lead High Yield FX
AUDUSD: Fresh selling has provoked an even steeper decline in the AUDUSD, with the pair falling towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement off the 2008 low to the 2011 high at $0.9141. While fundamentally I am long-term bearish, it is worth noting that the most readily available data shows COT positioning remains extremely short Aussie.

Contemplative_Start_to_Week_as_Safe_Havens_Lead_High_Yield_FX_body_x0000_i1031.png, Contemplative Start to Week as Safe Havens Lead High Yield FX
S&P 500: No change: “The S&P 500 held the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the late-February low to the late-May high at 1610, and is trading back to the conflux of the 8-/21-EMA at 1631/33 again – price has touched one of these two moving averages every trading session since June 7. Resistance now comes at the top of the Evening Star candle cluster that formed June 7 to June 11) at 1650. The index is also close to breaking the daily RSI downtrend, which would be supportive of further gains as well (a Symmetrical Triangle on RSI is breaking to the upside). Firm support is at 1595/1600, and a break here would lead to a sharp pullback towards 1585 and 1561.”

Contemplative_Start_to_Week_as_Safe_Havens_Lead_High_Yield_FX_body_x0000_i1032.png, Contemplative Start to Week as Safe Havens Lead High Yield FX
GOLD: No change: “If the US Dollar turns around, however (as many of the techs are starting to point to), then Gold will have a difficult gaining momentum higher. Indeed this has been the case, with Gold failing to reclaim the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April meltdown at $1487.65, only peaking above it by 35 cents for a moment a few weeks ago.”
 

Saturday 22 June 2013

Next Week Fundamental Data You Don't Want To Miss!

This last week of the month, will bring a load of information including GDP, inflation readings, and employment figures in Europe. The data will be key for Central Banks later decisions, and market players will be eager to price it in.


USD and Gross Domestic Product, June 26th
  • Current 2.4% - Expected 2.4%
  • Above expected: USD Bullish
  • Below expected: USD Bearish
  • Key pairs to watch: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, GBP/USD
With greenback strong across the board, GDP data will be a big market mover, despite is only a revision of previous release. A reading in line with expectations or above it, will support the greenback trough the idea of QE tapering, sending it higher particularly against EUR and JPY. A reading below expected however, can trigger some corrections against the American currency, although won’t be expecting market players to reverse recent gains. A strong deviation to the downside, a reading below 2.0% however, can affect the currency and trigger a stronger pullback.


GBP and Gross Domestic Product, June 27th

  • Current 0.6%
  • Above expected: GBP Bullish
  • Below expected: GBP Bearish
  • Key pairs to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
Market is still not ready to sell GBP that holds pretty well latest dollar attacks. However, data over this month has been not as bright as we have seen in May, and Pound is no longer the star of the board. A positive reading may put buyers back in control, and diminish the effects of other economies woes in the pair. A bad reading however, will gave investors the final reason required to sell GBP.


JPY and Consumer Price Index, June 27th

  • Current -0.7%
  • Above expected: JPY Bullish
  • Below expected: JPY Bearish
  • Key pairs to watch: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY
Yen continues strong, and another approach to 100.00 seems too far away now. With BOJ inflation target at 2.0%, and all the stimulus already applied to the economy, we should expect a positive reading this month, and therefore more yen strength: a number above expected will suggest things are going on as planned, and no more easing is required at the moment. On the other hand, a reading below expected, should send investors price in more facilities, and therefore, trigger strong losses in JPY, particularly against the greenback.

Source: http://dld.bz/cFneV

Dollar’s Best Week in 3 Years Spark for 110 USD/JPY, 1.2000 EUR/USD?

  • Dollar’s Best Week in 3 Years Spark for 110 USDJPY, 1.2000 EUR/USD?
  • Euro Confidence Crumbling as Global Sentiment Suffers, Greece Teeters
  • Japanese Yen: The Bank of Japan is Still Winning
  • British Pound Faces Financial Stability Report, King and Carney Speeches
  • Australian Dollar Suffers Biggest Drop in 15 Months as Bonds Collapse
  • New Zealand Dollar: Will Kiwi Repeat Worst Performer of the Week?
  • Gold Suffers 7 Percent Plunge as Speculative Positioning Hits 7 Year Low

  • Dollar’s Best Week in 3 Years Spark for 110 USDJPY, 1.2000 EUR/USD?
    The Fed delivered the global financial markets its biggest shock this past week since the US default brinkmanship resulted in the loss of country’s triple-A rating back in August of 2011. And, the central bank didn’t even change policy. The group’s massive $85 billion-per-month QE3 stimulus program survived the FOMC meeting this past week, yet the 10-year Treasury note was sold heavily enough to drive its yield over 40 basis points higher for the biggest weekly increase in a decade. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USdollar) rallied 2.4 percent – the strongest move in three years- and the S&P 500 dropped 2.1 percent for its worst performance this year. This revival of risk-appetite based correlations suggests a current of eroding sentiment is carrying us on a market-wide delevering effort that has enough weight to develop a lasting bull trend for the dollar. Yet, does this broad volatility have the necessary elements to send EURUSD back towards 1.2000 or USDJPY up to 110. It is highly unlikely we see both. To send EURUSD plunging 1,000 pips, we will likely need a combination of Euro-area financial risk and general risk aversion (the latter usually instigates the former). Yet, the level of risk aversion to carry the world’s most liquid pairing that far would spur a carry trade unwind for the stimulus-laden yen crosses that sent USDJPY tumbling alongside AUDJPY.

    Euro Confidence Crumbling as Global Sentiment Suffers, Greece Teeters
    The euro is always walking a fine line between controlled, long-term stability risk and immediate crisis. Officials this past week have acted to play down the trouble that has developed in Greece, and desensitized Euro-area investors are tempted to believe that this will be another false threat. Yet, moderate troubles can turn extreme without the help of domestic instability should the broader backdrop for market sentiment deteriorate. European equities suffered the worst weekly performance in 13-months, but the real concern is the sovereign / banking financial trouble feedback. Though still well off 2011 highs as of yet, EU banking sector CDS and Spanish 10-year government bond yields have lurched aggressively higher. In the meantime, Greece’s troubles should not be forgotten. The exit of a government coalition partner speaks to strain in the country that can cause problems with the IMF warning the country on its austerity funding gap.

    Japanese Yen: The Bank of Japan is Still Winning
    Given the exceptional moves for global equities, US Treasuries, high yield currencies and the safe haven dollar; we would look for the Japanese yen to realign to its historical role as a safe haven, funding currency. Yet, through the past week, the yen actually fell against most of its counterparts – and its gains against the pummeled Aussie and Kiwi dollar’s was slight. The Tokyo markets were rocked in the weeks preceding the Taper rout, which no doubt discouraged an inflow of foreign capital looking for haven. With an equity volatility reading twice that of the US and Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) ready to suffer another bout of record swings at any moment, Japan’s financial system is doesn’t present a convincing safe haven backdrop. However, should fear continue to build, the leveraged yen carry trades will take a hit.

    British Pound Faces Financial Stability Report, King and Carney SpeechesThere was relatively little individual performance from the sterling this past week. GBPUSD tumbled 1.9 percent due to the dollar’s rally while a tumble in risk rallied sunk the commodity bloc (AUD, NZD and CAD) to the sterling’s favor. While there was fundamental fodder to take in, it wasn’t of the cut that can overwhelm a current as deep as risk appetite and Fed stimulus-dependency. We may seen that secondary performance give way to a more active currency in the not-too-distant future however. In the week ahead, a UK Financial Stability Report will likely illuminate the £26 billion funding gap in the nation’s banks noted by the PRA this past week. For monetary policy, outgoing-BoE Governor King is scheduled to testify before the Treasury Committee for the last time; while incoming-Governor Carney hosts the G-20 Financial Stability Board meeting to discuss global regulations.

    Australian Dollar Suffers Biggest Drop in 15 Months as Bonds Collapse
    Having already suffered an exceptional tumble from its ill-fated attempt to overtake 1.0600 just two months ago, AUDUSD made an effort to ensure the tentative rebound from last week was completely snuffed out. The 3.7 percent decline this past week was the worst performance for the pair in 15 months. It would be easy enough to hang responsibility for this move on the greenback, but the malaise in Australian yields shows that the high yield currency is itself suffering. As a carry trade currency, the incredible drop in the10-year government bond – the biggest since 2001 – shows a steady unwinding of yield seekers’ positions. This may seem like a ‘blow off’ move, but putting the 3.76 percent yield into perspective, we were at 5.75 percent in 2011, 6.75 percent in 2008 and north of 10 percent two decades ago.

    New Zealand Dollar: Will Kiwi Repeat Worst Performer of the Week?
    It is easy to be distracted by the Australian dollar’s meteoric plunge through the past two months. However, for this past week, it was the New Zealand dollar that took top spot for worst performer. Until this past week, the kiwi showed a level of restraint to its decline compared to its Aussie counterpart; but recently momentum may indicate a change of scale. The slump in demand for two bond auctions – a 3 percent 2020 bond and local agency debt – confirms the market is losing its appetite for New Zealand yield. We will see a more direct assessment of just how strained the foreign appetite for yield is with the RBNZ’s monthly currency flows assessment due Thursday morning.

    Gold Suffers 7 Percent Plunge as Speculative Positioning Hits 7 Year Low
    There was little reprieve for gold this past week. Though the precious metal fought for a bullish close Friday – the first in five trading days – it hardly made up for the heavy damage incurred throughout the week. The 6.8 percent plunge over the period was the worst since September of 2011. Some may find solace in the relatively restrained volume in both futures and ETFs behind this selloff, but the progress over the last year and current historical level should cut this optimism to realistic levels. A 30 percent drop in nine months to three-year lows gives us proper scope of the situation. Looking at the COT figures (speculative futures positioning through this past Tuesday), the market is most pessimistic on gold since 2006. While this can be considered a contrarian / oversold indication, the complete fundamental shift for the commodity means it is difficult to mount a robust recovery. Given its volatility (bad for a safe haven status) and lack of yield (not a carry), the dollar rebound is painful.

    ECONOMIC DATA

    GMT
    Currency
    Release
    Survey
    Previous
    Comments
    22:45
    NZD
    Net Migration s.a. (MAY)

    1570

    3:00
    NZD
    Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (MAY)

    0.4%

    3:00
    NZD
    Credit Card Spending (YoY) (MAY)

    4.0%

    8:00
    EUR
    German IFO - Expectations (JUN)
    102
    101.6

    8:00
    EUR
    German IFO - Business Climate (JUN)
    105.9
    105.7

    8:00
    EUR
    German IFO - Current Assessment (JUN)
    109.6
    110

    8:00
    EUR
    Italian Consumer Confidence Index s.a. (JUN)
    86.2
    85.9

    12:30
    USD
    Chicago Fed National Activity Index (MAY)

    -0.53

    14:30
    USD
    Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (JUN)
    -1.8
    -10.5


    GMT
    Currency
    Upcoming Events & Speeches
    8:00 (SUN)
    EUR
    ECB's Joerg Asmussen Speaks on Euro Economy

    EUR
    Troika Mission Visit to Portugal
    16:30
    USD
    Fed's Richard Fisher Speaks on U.S. Economy, Monetary Policy



    SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

    CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

    EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT

    SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
    Currency
    USD/MXN
    USD/TRY
    USD/ZAR
    USD/HKD
    USD/SGD

    Currency
    USD/SEK
    USD/DKK
    USD/NOK
    Resist 2
    15.0000
    2.0000
    10.7000
    7.8165
    1.3650

    Resist 2
    7.5800
    5.8950
    6.1150
    Resist 1
    12.9000
    1.9000
    10.2500
    7.8075
    1.3250

    Resist 1
    6.8155
    5.8300
    5.9365
    Spot
    12.6508
    1.8635
    9.8671
    7.7638
    1.2504

    Spot
    6.4843
    5.5860
    5.7475
    Support 1
    12.0000
    1.6500
    9.3700
    7.7490
    1.2000

    Support 1
    6.0800
    5.6075
    5.7400
    Support 2
    11.5200
    1.5725
    8.9500
    7.7450
    1.1800

    Support 2
    5.8085
    5.4440
    5.5000

    INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

    \Currency
    EUR/USD
    GBP/USD
    USD/JPY
    USD/CHF
    USD/CAD
    AUD/USD
    NZD/USD
    EUR/JPY
    GBP/JPY
    Resist. 3
    1.3471
    1.5837
    96.50
    0.9339
    1.0246
    0.9728
    0.8187
    128.84
    151.40
    Resist. 2
    1.3441
    1.5805
    96.12
    0.9312
    1.0226
    0.9696
    0.8159
    128.34
    150.84
    Resist. 1
    1.3412
    1.5772
    95.74
    0.9285
    1.0207
    0.9665
    0.8130
    127.83
    150.29
    Spot
    1.3353
    1.5707
    94.98
    0.9231
    1.0168
    0.9602
    0.8073
    126.82
    149.18
    Support 1
    1.3294
    1.5642
    94.22
    0.9177
    1.0129
    0.9539
    0.8016
    125.81
    148.08
    Support 2
    1.3265
    1.5609
    93.84
    0.9150
    1.0110
    0.9508
    0.7987
    125.30
    147.52
    Support 3
    1.3235
    1.5577
    93.46
    0.9123
    1.0090
    0.9476
    0.7959
    124.80
    146.97
    v