Price & Time: Anticipating a Lively September & October!

Tactical decline in EUR/USD beginning to take shape

USD/JPY fails at projection level

Gold outlook remain positive

Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

 

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

• EUR/USD came under further downside pressure this week to trade to its lowest level since mid-July
• While below the 1.3415 2Q13 high our broader trend bias will remain lower in the single currency
• A weekly close below the 2nd square root progression of the August high at 1.3220 will be further evidence that a more important decline is unfolding
• The second half of next week is a medium-term cycle turn window in the rate
• A move through the 1.3320 61.8% retracement of the late August – September decline would relieve the immediate downside pressure, but only a weekly close over 1.3415 turns us positive

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Still short against a weekly close over 1.3415

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
EUR/USD	1.3020	*1.3100	1.3170	1.3315	*1.3415

 

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

• USD/JPY touched the 100% projection of the initial August advance on Friday before coming under aggressive downside pressure
• While above the 2Q13 low near .9375 our longer-term trend bias will remain higher in the exchange rate
• The projection level at 100.15 and the 78.6% retracement of the July – August decline at 100.30 are now important pivots with a weekly close above required to signal the start of a new leg higher
• The next medium-term cycle turn window is seen in about a week
• A cluster of Gann supports near 98.60, 97.60 and 96.70 are important, but only weakness below .9375 will turn the broader outlook to negative in USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Tactical longs favored against .9375

 

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
USD/JPY	97.60	98.60	1.5605	*100.30	100.70

 

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

• XAU/USD came under further downside pressure this week following last week’s failure at the 7th square roo progression of the year-to-date low in the 1418 area
• While over the 3rd square root progression of the year’s low at 1280 our broader trend bias will remain higher in the metal
• A move through 1418 and the 100% projection of the July advance near 1440 is needed to set off the next important move higher in the metal
• The middle of the month looks like a cycle turn window
• The 1350 area is important support, but only a weekly close below 1280 would turn us longer-term negative on Gold

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like tactical long positions in Gold while above 1280.

Instrument	Support 2	Support 1	Spot	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
XAU/USD	*1280	1350	1387	1418	*1440

Source: http://dld.bz/cPtS5