On balance, a small initial cutback of asset purchases this month is probably priced in at this point. Indeed, opting to do nothing this time around might be problematic from a credibility perspective given Fed officials’ considerable efforts to telegraph the move over recent months. That means the object of speculation at this stage is the trajectory of further “tapering” of QE after September’s outing. With that in mind, news-flow arguing against a sustained stimulus reduction cycle through the year-end (such as a dovish tone from Mr Williams or a particularly disappointing Consumer Credit print) is likely to weigh on the US Dollar, and vice versa.
The Japanese Yen gapped down at the open of the trading week and underperformed against its top counterparts as risk appetite swelled overnight, sending stocks higher and boosting demand for carry trades funded in terms of the perennially low-yielding currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index rose 1 percent wake of better-than-expected Chinese Trade Balance data published over the weekend. The report showed that exports rose 7.2 percent year-on-year in August, marking the largest increase in four months and topping forecasts calling for a 5.5 percent increase. The release stoked optimism about economic growth in the world’s second-largest economy. The Australian Dollar outperformed and we remain long AUDUSD.
Asia Session:
GMT
|
CCY
|
EVENT
|
ACT
|
EXP
|
PREV
|
1:30
|
CNY
|
Trade Balance (AUG)
|
28.52B
|
$20.00B
|
$17.82B
|
1:30
|
CNY
|
Imports (YoY) (AUG)
|
7.0%
|
11.3%
|
10.9%
|
1:30
|
CNY
|
Exports (YoY) (AUG)
|
7.2%
|
5.5%
|
5.1%
|
22:45
|
Manufacturing Activity Volume (QoQ) (2Q)
|
-3.4%
|
-
|
-0.6%
| |
22:45
|
NZD
|
Manufacturing Activity (2Q)
|
-2.0%
|
-
|
0.2%
|
23:50
|
GDP (QoQ) (2Q F)
|
0.9%
|
1.0%
|
0.6%
| |
23:50
|
JPY
|
GDP Annualized (2Q F)
|
3.8%
|
3.9%
|
2.6%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Nominal GDP (QoQ) (2Q F)
|
0.9%
|
1.0%
|
0.7%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Consumer Spending (QoQ) (2Q F)
|
0.7%
|
-
|
0.8%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Business Spending (QoQ) (2Q F)
|
1.3%
|
1.1%
|
-0.1%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
GDP Deflator (YoY) (2Q F)
|
-0.5%
|
-0.3%
|
-0.3%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Current Account Total (¥) (JUL)
|
577.3B
|
507.7B
|
336.3B
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (JUL)
|
333.7B
|
313.9B
|
646.2B
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (JUL)
|
-943.3B
|
-862.4B
|
-139.2B
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
BoP Current Account Balance (YoY) (JUL)
|
-12.9%
|
-27.8%
|
-20.3%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (YoY) (AUG)
|
2.3%
|
-
|
2.3%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (AUG)
|
2.0%
|
-
|
2.0%
|
0:00
|
NZD
|
QV House Prices (YoY) (AUG)
|
8.5%
|
-
|
8.1%
|
1:30
|
CNY
|
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
|
2.6%
|
2.6%
|
2.7%
|
1:30
|
CNY
|
Producer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
|
-1.6%
|
-1.7%
|
-2.3%
|
1:30
|
Home Loans (MoM) (JUL)
|
2.4%
|
2.0%
|
2.6%
| |
1:30
|
AUD
|
Investment Lending (MoM) (JUL)
|
2.9%
|
-
|
-0.1%
|
1:30
|
AUD
|
Value of Loans (MoM) (JUL)
|
0.0%
|
-
|
2.4%
|
1:30
|
AUD
|
ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (AUG)
|
-2.0%
|
-
|
-1.1%
|
4:30
|
JPY
|
Bankruptcies (YoY) (AUG)
|
-15.3%
|
-
|
-0.1%
|
5:00
|
JPY
|
Consumer Confidence Index (AUG)
|
43.0
|
44.0
|
43.6
|
Euro Session:
GMT
|
CCY
|
EVENT
|
EXP/ACT
|
PREV
|
IMPACT
|
5:45
|
Unemployment Rate (AUG)
|
3.0% (A)
|
3.0%
|
Medium
| |
5:45
|
CHF
|
Unemployment Rate s.a. (AUG)
|
3.2% (A)
|
3.2%
|
Medium
|
6:00
|
JPY
|
Eco Watchers Survey: Current (AUG)
|
51.2 (A)
|
52.3
|
Low
|
6:00
|
JPY
|
Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (AUG)
|
51.2 (A)
|
53.6
|
Low
|
7:15
|
CHF
|
Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (JUL)
|
0.8% (A)
|
2.3%
|
Medium
|
8:30
|
Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (SEP)
|
-3.5
|
-4.9
|
Low
|
Critical Levels:
CCY
|
SUPP 3
|
SUPP 2
|
SUPP 1
|
Pivot Point
|
RES 1
|
RES 2
|
RES 3
|
1.2989
|
1.3073
|
1.3126
|
1.3157
|
1.321
|
1.3241
|
1.3325
| |
1.5394
|
1.551
|
1.5572
|
1.5626
|
1.5688
|
1.5742
|
1.5858
|
Source: http://dld.bz/cPz2t
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