Through 2013, the safe haven currency and risk-preferred index have established a remarkable, positive correlation. In fact, the rolling three-month 60-day (three-month) correlation has moved as high as positive 0.75 (1.00 would mean they moved in lockstep). Given this unusual state of fundamental affairs, a correction by one was likely. However, the break we have witnessed this week doesn’t likely reflect a return to traditional investor sentiment as the prevailing fundamental wind for the broader financial system. If we were indeed returning to a market that has been put into gear for a yield chase while ignoring possible future risks, we should expect to see such appetites burgeoning in all asset classes. Yet, a quick look around the markets show the FX carry trade lost ground, speculative commodities retraced gains and even Asian equity indexes leveled off. If the markets were seeking return at all cost, all of these would have advanced.
The source of the market’s volatility over the past 48 hours was the same theme that has defined bearing and momentum over the past few months – stimulus speculation. Under certain conditions, expectations surrounding the outlook for monetary policy can catalyze market-wide positioning based on investor sentiment. Yet, it is fear of the eventual withdrawal of support that carries the greatest risk, not a ramp on the expectations that support will be left in place longer than expected. And so, we have to look back over the FOMC minutes and Chairman Bernanke’s comments. The Fed chief’s comments merely repeated an ‘accommodative’ stance that has been used since rates were cut to zero. It is the minutes that matter most here, and the suggestion that “many” on the Committee want labor to improve further before the Taper is offset by the “about half” that see QE3 possibly ending before the end of 2013. The market is likely very sensitive to further Taper chatter, so news of member Elizabeth Duke’s resignation (effective August 31) alongside the scheduled speeches by Williams, Plosser and Bullard in the upcoming session will likely stir markets Friday. Furthermore, watch JPMorgan and Wells Fargo earnings and the sentiment survey as risk trend fodder.
Euro: Trouble with Greece, Portugal, Others Contradicts Currency Strength
The euro is taking advantage of the pain inflicted upon its primary counterpart. As the world’s second most liquid currency, the shared currency stands to naturally reap the benefit of a broad dollar decline – exactly what we have seen over the past 48 hours. That said, if the anti-dollar sentiment weren’t a prominent drive; the euro would likely be exposed for serious fundamental trouble. On the docket this session, we learned that the Portuguese President rejected the Prime Minister Coelho’s seemingly effective plan and sets the country on pace for further struggle to secure Troika aid. In Greece, an uptick in the jobless rate to a record high 26.9 percent while non-performing loans also soared to 29 percent. These countries are dangerously close to rekindling the Eurozone’s financial crisis, yet the markets remain contentedly blasé of the risks.
Japanese Yen Crosses Unable to Rally Despite Positive Risk Bearing
As expected, the BoJ maintained its policy bearings and kept its ¥270 trillion monetary base target at its meeting Thursday. Furthermore, the assessment by the policy authority that the country is in a ‘recovery’ for the first time since 2011 suggests we will see neither an increase nor tempering of the effort through the foreseeable future. This may seem a problem, but note that most of the yen crosses’ advance has come during the threat and escalation stages of the stimulus regime. This ‘leveling off’ may explain yesterday’s tepid carry performance.
Australia Dollar Ignores Equity Rally, Stumbles after Jobs ReportUS equities have surged and the threat of Taper has eased, yet the Australia dollar has dropped against most counterparts for the second consecutive day. The refusal to climb under these circumstances is testament to the bearish weight on the Aussie dollar’s shoulders. Thursday morning’s jobs data likely sabotaged the opportunistic carry traders from jumping aboard. While the country added 10,300 jobs, it lost full-time positions and the jobless rate rose. Meanwhile, the market sees a 70 percent chance of an RBA cut next month.
British Pound Advances after Miles Says FLS Insurance
The sterling gained against all but the Swiss franc this past session – remarkable given the themes at play and the light economic docket. However, BoE member Miles’ comments speak directly to what traders care about most: relative stimulus. The central banker said the FLS program (a possible venue for more a more flexible QE-like effort) was an insurance program and not likely to increase near-term.
Canadian Dollar Has Little Trouble Rallying Versus US Dollar Unlike AUD, NZD
While both the high-yield Australian and New Zealand dollar’s floundered Thursday, the Canadian dollar had no qualms about forging a significant rally against its US counterpart. The 1.0 percent drop was USDCAD’s fourth consecutive decline and the largest daily drop from the pair since June 2012. The USDollar’s performance resonates far more against this lower-yielding comm bloc pair.
Gold Breaks Above $1,265 but Conviction Far Weaker than USD, S&P 500
The 2.1 percent advance from gold Thursday marked the first four-day rally from the metal since April 22 (post collapse rebound) and the drive needed to push the market back above $1,265. Yet, this performance doesn’t look so impressive when we compare it to the remarkable moves of the dollar or US equities. If recent volatility traces back to Taper speculation – specifically that its implementation could be pushed back – gold should be a serious benefactor. Yet, even a delay is not an expansion of stimulus. And the battered commodity needs more help than that.
ECONOMIC DATA
GMT
|
Currency
|
Release
|
Survey
|
Previous
|
Comments
|
1:30
|
AUD
|
RBA Credit Card Balances (MAY)
|
$49.4B
|
Despite a short rise in the Aussi following Bernanke comments on Wednesday, the currency continues to stay low on poor Chinese and Australian data. Further missed estimates point to a higher likelihood of an RBA rate cut come August.
| |
1:30
|
AUD
|
RBA Credit Card Purchases (MAY)
|
$21.6B
| ||
1:30
|
AUD
|
Home Loans (MAY)
|
2.2%
|
0.8%
| |
1:30
|
AUD
|
Investment Lending (MAY)
|
1.1%
| ||
1:30
|
AUD
|
Value of Loans (MoM) (MAY)
|
-0.9%
| ||
3:00
|
NZD
|
Non Resident Bond Holdings (JUN)
|
69.1%
|
Previous print was the highest since 2009.
| |
4:30
|
JPY
|
Industrial Production (MoM) (MAY F)
|
2.0%
|
The BoJ on Thursday did not give any indication of more policy moves. A continuation of improved data like previous industrial production readings will likely continue this trend out of the BoJ.
| |
4:30
|
JPY
|
Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY F)
|
-1.0%
| ||
4:30
|
JPY
|
Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAY F)
|
1.6%
| ||
8:00
|
EUR
|
Italian CPI - FOI Index ex Tobacco (JUN)
|
106.9
|
CPI out of Italy has been moving down for the past year, but any move closer to the 2% rate will be viewed as beneficial.
| |
8:00
|
EUR
|
Italian CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (JUN F)
|
1.4%
|
1.4%
| |
8:30
|
GBP
|
Construction Output (YoY) (MAY)
|
-2.8%
|
-1.1%
|
Further negative readings on construction output may fuel speculation of BoE easing in the coming months.
|
9:00
|
EUR
|
Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAY)
|
-0.2%
|
0.4%
|
Negative prints will put further pressure on an already stressed European fiscal and banking situation.
|
9:00
|
EUR
|
Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAY)
|
-1.3%
|
-0.6%
| |
10:00
|
EUR
|
ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
| |||
12:30
|
USD
|
Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUN)
|
0.5%
|
0.5%
|
More indications of healthy inflation levels will relieve concerns from the Fed about the impacts of an early taper on recently slowing inflation.
|
12:30
|
USD
|
Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN)
|
2.1%
|
1.7%
| |
12:30
|
USD
|
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JUN)
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
| |
12:30
|
USD
|
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUN)
|
1.6%
|
1.7%
| |
13:55
|
USD
|
U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL P)
|
85
|
84.1
|
GMT
|
Currency
|
Upcoming Events & Speeches
|
USD
|
Fed's Plosser and Bullard Speak on Central Banking
| |
8:00
|
EUR
|
ECB's Carlos Costa Speaks on Euro Economy
|
21:15
|
USD
|
Fed's John Williams Presents a Monetary Policy Paper
|
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT
|
SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
| |||||||||
Currency
|
USD/MXN
|
USD/TRY
|
USD/ZAR
|
USD/HKD
|
USD/SGD
|
Currency
|
USD/SEK
|
USD/DKK
|
USD/NOK
| |
Resist 2
|
13.4800
|
2.0000
|
10.7000
|
7.8165
|
1.3650
|
Resist 2
|
7.5800
|
5.8950
|
6.5135
| |
Resist 1
|
13.2000
|
1.9500
|
10.2500
|
7.8075
|
1.3250
|
Resist 1
|
6.8155
|
5.8475
|
6.2660
| |
Spot
|
12.8248
|
1.9532
|
9.9898
|
7.7565
|
1.2611
|
Spot
|
6.6645
|
5.7005
|
6.0533
| |
Support 1
|
12.6000
|
1.9100
|
9.3700
|
7.7490
|
1.2000
|
Support 1
|
6.0800
|
5.6075
|
5.9365
| |
Support 2
|
12.0000
|
1.6500
|
8.9500
|
7.7450
|
1.1800
|
Support 2
|
5.8085
|
5.4440
|
5.7400
| |
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
\CCY
|
GBP/USD
|
USD/JPY
|
USD/CHF
|
USD/CAD
|
AUD/USD
|
NZD/USD
|
EUR/JPY
|
GBP/JPY
|
Gold
| |
Res 3
|
1.3207
|
1.5321
|
100.65
|
0.9579
|
1.0466
|
0.9268
|
0.7945
|
131.66
|
152.53
|
1315.85
|
Res 2
|
1.3176
|
1.5284
|
100.28
|
0.9553
|
1.0444
|
0.9238
|
0.7918
|
131.18
|
152.02
|
1307.84
|
Res 1
|
1.3145
|
1.5246
|
99.91
|
0.9527
|
1.0422
|
0.9208
|
0.7891
|
130.71
|
151.50
|
1299.83
|
Spot
|
1.3084
|
1.5172
|
99.18
|
0.9475
|
1.0378
|
0.9149
|
0.7838
|
129.76
|
150.47
|
1283.80
|
Supp 1
|
1.3023
|
1.5098
|
98.45
|
0.9423
|
1.0334
|
0.9090
|
0.7785
|
128.81
|
149.44
|
1267.77
|
Supp 2
|
1.2992
|
1.5060
|
98.08
|
0.9397
|
1.0312
|
0.9060
|
0.7758
|
128.34
|
148.93
|
1307.84
|
Supp 3
|
1.2961
|
1.5023
|
97.71
|
0.9371
|
1.0290
|
0.9030
|
0.7731
|
127.86
|
148.41
|
1315.85
|
v
Source: http://dld.bz/cH6YP
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